Dear Readers and Clients,
In 2011, Prestige Economics was recognized as the most accurate independent commodity and financial market research firm in the world. For accuracy over eight consecutive quarters, Bloomberg News awarded me the following rankings in 2011:
#1 Non-farm Payroll Forecaster in the World
#1 Industrial Metals Price Forecaster in the World
#2 Precious Metals Price Forecaster in the World
#2 Nickel Price Forecaster in the World
#3 Aluminum Price Forecaster in the World
#4 WTI Crude Oil Price Forecaster in the World
#5 Henry Hub Natural Gas Price Forecaster in the World
Our rankings are online at: www.prestigeeconomics.com/top
Economic Expectations for 2012
As we look ahead into 2012, we expect global economic growth to decelerate, especially in the first half of the year. We also expect the U.S. economy will continue to demonstrate modestly-improved positive momentum. This dichotomy of decelerating global growth and modestly-improving U.S. economic growth is likely to continue to engender high market volatility. Furthermore, the downside risks to economic growth, commodity prices, and financial markets in the first half of 2012 are significant.
In 2012, we expect 6 fundamental economic and financial market realities:
1.) U.S. growth and jobs are expected to show modest improvements.
2.) Growth is decelerating abroad, and additional foreign accommodative monetary policy is likely.
3.) The euro will survive, but faces asymmetric downside risks in the first half of the year.
4.) The dollar faces asymmetric upside risks in the first half of the year.
5.) Most industrial commodity prices are likely to be lower in 2012 than in 2011 (except WTI crude oil and gold).
6.) Equity markets are exposed to asymmetric downside risks in the first half of the year.
Prestige Economics Direct Access and Other Initiatives in 2012
Prestige Economics will enter its fourth year of operations in 2012, and we are most pleased to introduce a new client service offering: Prestige Economics Direct Access. Prestige Economics Direct Access is a retained advisory service designed for clients that want the ability to consult with me directly on financial market issues, want my input on strategic initiatives, or want me to analyze specific problems or issues. There are two levels of this new service.
More information about Prestige Economics Direct Access is online at: www.prestigeeconomics.com/directaccess
In addition to Prestige Economics Direct Access, 2012 will also bring book publications and the introduction of an RIA. In the first quarter, my risk management book The Executive Road Map to Effective Commodity Risk Management will be published, as well as my scrap market benchmarking review Be The Shredder, Not The Shred. Additionally, we eagerly await the approval of Prestige Asset Management, LLC as a Registered Investment Advisor, which will allow me to offer personal financial planning services to a very limited number of clients.
Thank you all for supporting the growth of my firm. I am so proud that Prestige Economics is the market leader in independent commodity and financial market research, and that my personal rankings consistently beat bulge-bracket banks with multi-million dollar research budgets. I wish you all a very happy and prosperous new year.
Sincerely,
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